EIA: No Annual Energy Outlook publication next year

“Rapidly evolving” trends requires better modeling, EIA says

Citing a need to better understand emerging technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said it will not produce its annual long-term look at the U.S. energy system in 2024.

“A core aspect of our mission is to develop long-term projections of the U.S. energy system that inform decision makers at all levels,” the EIA said in a news release. “This work requires keeping pace with rapidly evolving energy markets, policies and regulations, macroeconomic trends, technology innovation, and resource availability.

“EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which we use to produce our Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), requires substantial updates to better model hydrogen, carbon capture, and other emerging technologies.”

The EIA’s AEO publication schedule does not accommodate those necessary model enhancements and as a result, the EIA will not publish an AEO in 2024. This decision does not affect publications relying on our near-term modeling, such as the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

“By retooling NEMS in 2024, the next AEO in 2025 will more comprehensively address existing laws and regulations in the Reference case, including up-to-date provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act and regulatory actions that could be finalized in the coming months,” the EIA said.

The EIA also said it had embarked on a longer-term effort to develop a flexible, next-generation modeling framework that is better suited to address the ongoing changes in the U.S. energy sector.

“We will continue to communicate with our stakeholders on these critical modeling issues and provide regular progress reports on our website,” the EIA said. “Our plan ensures that the AEO will continue to provide a sound and independent long-term perspective on the U.S. energy sector for lawmakers, energy modelers, and other stakeholders.”

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